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Aristeidis Koutroulis     Institute, Department or Faculty Head 
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Aristeidis Koutroulis published an article in April 2019.
Top co-authors See all
I. K. Tsanis

44 shared publications

School of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, 73100 Chania, Greece

Richard A. Betts

37 shared publications

Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK

John Caesar

11 shared publications

Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK

Manolis G. Grillakis

11 shared publications

School of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete—TUC, Chania 73100, Greece

K. Wyser

10 shared publications

Rossby Centre, SMHI, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden

Publication Record
Distribution of Articles published per year 
(2009 - 2019)
Total number of journals
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Publications See all
Article 0 Reads 0 Citations Global water availability under high-end climate change: A vulnerability based assessment A.G. Koutroulis, L.V. Papadimitriou, M.G. Grillakis, I.K. Ts... Published: 01 April 2019
Global and Planetary Change, doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.01.013
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Global sustainability is intertwined with freshwater security. Emerging changes in global freshwater availability have been recently detected as a combined result of human interventions, natural variability and climate change. Expected future socioeconomic and climatic changes will further impact freshwater resources. The quantification of the impacts is challenging due to the complexity of interdependencies between physical and socioeconomic systems. This study demonstrates a vulnerability based assessment of global freshwater availability through a conceptual framework, considering transient hydro-climatic impacts of crossing specific warming levels (1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C) and related socioeconomic developments under high-end climate change (RCP8.5). We use high resolution climate scenarios and a global land surface model to develop indicators of exposure for 25,000 watersheds. We also exploit spatially explicit datasets to describe a range of adaptation options through sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The combined dynamics of climate and socioeconomic changes suggest that although there is important potential for adaptation to reduce freshwater vulnerability, climate change risks cannot be totally and uniformly eliminated. In many regions, socioeconomic developments will have greater impact on water availability compared to climate induced changes. The number of people under increased freshwater vulnerability varies substantially depending the level of global warming and the degree of socioeconomic developments, from almost 1 billion people at 4 °C and SSP5 to almost 3 billion people at 4 °C and SSP3. Generally, it is concluded that larger adaptation efforts are required to address the risks associated with higher levels of warming of 4 °C compared to the lower levels of 1.5 °C or 2 °C. The watershed scale and country level aggregated results of this study can provide a valuable resource for decision makers to plan for climate change adaptation and mitigation actions.
Article 2 Reads 0 Citations Dryland changes under different levels of global warming Aristeidis G. Koutroulis Published: 01 March 2019
Science of The Total Environment, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.215
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Article 0 Reads 0 Citations Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matt... Published: 01 February 2019
The Cryosphere, doi: 10.5194/tc-13-325-2019
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The Paris agreement aims to hold global warming to well below 2∘C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5∘C relative to the pre-industrial period. Recent estimates based on population growth and intended carbon emissions from participant countries suggest global warming may exceed this ambitious target. Here we present glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding +2∘C global average warming relative to the pre-industrial period. Glacier volume is modelled by developing an elevation-dependent mass balance model for the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). To do this, we modify JULES to include glaciated and unglaciated surfaces that can exist at multiple heights within a single grid box. Present-day mass balance is calibrated by tuning albedo, wind speed, precipitation, and temperature lapse rates to obtain the best agreement with observed mass balance profiles. JULES is forced with an ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, which were downscaled using the high-resolution HadGEM3-A atmosphere-only global climate model. The CMIP5 models use the RCP8.5 climate change scenario and were selected on the criteria of passing 2∘C global average warming during this century. The ensemble mean volume loss at the end of the century plus or minus 1 standard deviation is -64±5% for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet. The uncertainty in the multi-model mean is rather small and caused by the sensitivity of HadGEM3-A to the boundary conditions supplied by the CMIP5 models. The regions which lose more than 75% of their initial volume by the end of the century are Alaska, western Canada and the US, Iceland, Scandinavia, the Russian Arctic, central Europe, Caucasus, high-mountain Asia, low latitudes, southern Andes, and New Zealand. The ensemble mean ice loss expressed in sea level equivalent contribution is 215.2±21.3mm. The largest contributors to sea level rise are Alaska (44.6±1.1mm), Arctic Canada north and south (34.9±3.0mm), the Russian Arctic (33.3±4.8mm), Greenland (20.1±4.4), high-mountain Asia (combined central Asia, South Asia east and west), (18.0±0.8mm), southern Andes (14.4±0.1mm), and Svalbard (17.0±4.6mm). Including parametric uncertainty in the calibrated mass balance parameters gives an upper bound global volume loss of 281.1mm of sea level equivalent by the end of the century. Such large ice losses will have inevitable consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
CONFERENCE-ARTICLE 47 Reads 0 Citations Hydrometeorological extremes in a warmer climate. A local scale assessment for the island of Crete Manolis Grillakis, Aristeidis Koutroulis Published: 15 November 2018
Proceedings, doi: 10.3390/ECWS-3-05818
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A future warmer atmosphere indicates that precipitation will increase as a consequence of the higher humidity concentrations. According to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship precipitation increase by a factor of 7% per degree of warming. However, recent studies have shown that increase in precipitation extremes can exceed this scaling rate. In this regard we focus on the flash flood prone area of Crete by analysing high resolution precipitation records form a dense network of meteorological stations to see if the relationship of precipitation and dew point temperature lies within the Clausius-Clapeyron theory. We then use simulation outputs of a “present day event” from a set of very high resolution (about 2 km grid spacing) convective permitting regional climate models (CPRCM) to see if the models are able to capture intense convection and thus accurately simulate extreme precipitation events over Crete. A second set of simulations for the present day event, but with a perturbation of +2oC, was used to examine intensity changes and to see what similar events might look like in a future weather. We finally focus on a high impact flash flood event occurred on 17 October 2006 and we study changes in hydrological impacts. The developed information can advance local scale knowledge in the context of climate change adaptation and appropriate risk management.

Article 0 Reads 1 Citation Mapping the vulnerability of European summer tourism under 2 °C global warming Aristeidis G. Koutroulis, M. G. Grillakis, I. K. Tsanis, D. ... Published: 26 September 2018
Climatic Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-018-2298-8
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Article 0 Reads 1 Citation Simulating Hydrological Impacts under Climate Change: Implications from Methodological Differences of a Pan European Ass... Aristeidis G. Koutroulis, Lamprini V. Papadimitriou, Manolis... Published: 26 September 2018
Water, doi: 10.3390/w10101331
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The simulation of hydrological impacts in a changing climate remains one of the main challenges of the earth system sciences. Impact assessments can be, in many cases, laborious processes leading to inevitable methodological compromises that drastically affect the robustness of the conclusions. In this study we examine the implications of different CMIP5-based regional and global climate model ensembles for projections of the hydrological impacts of climate change. We compare results from three different assessments of hydrological impacts under high-end climate change (RCP8.5) across Europe, and we focus on how methodological differences affect the projections. We assess, as systematically as possible, the differences in runoff projections as simulated by a land surface model driven by three different sets of climate projections over the European continent at global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, according to the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. We find that these methodological differences lead to considerably different outputs for a number of indicators used to express different aspects of runoff. We further use a number of new global climate model experiments, with an emphasis on high resolution, to test the assumption that many of the uncertainties in regional climate and hydrological changes are driven predominantly by the prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and we find that results are more sensitive to the choice of the atmosphere model compared to the driving SSTs. Finally, we combine all sources of information to identify robust patterns of hydrological changes across the European continent.